Success factors are hidden

There are a thousand examples: Our narratives about the type of knowledge or experience we must have or the type of people we must be in order to become successful are often quite wrong; in fact, they border on naive. We think people who talk well can do well, and vice versa. This is simply not always so.


The main takeaway is that the real causative factors of success are often hidden from us. We think that knowing the intricacies of green lumber are more important than keeping a close eye on the order flow. We seduce ourselves into overestimating the impact of our intellectualism and then wonder why “idiots” are getting ahead. (Probably hustle and competence.)

The Green Lumber Fallacy: The Difference between Talking and Doing


Perfect Saturday

  1. Share time with family
  2. Meditate and reflect
  3. Excercise
  4. Cook a dinner from scratch
  5. Write
  6. Read

Today was a perfect Saturday.

past vs the future

they say past returns don’t represent future returns but…past is generally a good indicator of the future.

you can safely predict your future capacity to execute a plan by your past capacity. If you plan to go to the gym every day, and previously you kept the habit of a daily exercise, it’s probably not an unreasonable belief that you can do it again.

Make Plans Work on 20% Effort

20% effort

If you need to tackle a challenging, yet unfamiliar goal, I recommend starting at 20% and moving upward. Figure out what you feel you could reasonably accomplish, cut it down severely and then slowly increase it as you get used to the habit. Some examples: Writing. Think you can do 1000 words a day? Make it 200 the first week, 250 the next, etc. Exercise. Think you can do an hour a day at the gym? Start with 15 minutes. Reading. Want to read a book a week? Try reading 5 pages a day. Language learning. Start with a twenty minute lesson, once a week.

Make Plans Work on 20% Effort

Start slow and build up as you get more comfortable.